Showing posts with label Basic course in graphical analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Basic course in graphical analysis. Show all posts

Saturday, October 26, 2013

The Basics 5

In the example in the previous page, the first bar 15 minutes, the gap ( the first business lead ) was R $ 4.20 .Then the price yielded slightly to $ 4.00 ( the minimum recording of this bar ) , rose to 9.20 ( maximum recordingthis bar ) and gave closing ( the last business runs this bar ) to 7.40 .At the next bar , the first business ( opening ) was made 7.40 .

Then the price rose slightly reaching maximum
7.50 , where it started to decline to reach a minimum of 4.50 and close with a 5.20 l igeira improves .In the third bar , the first business ( opening ) was closed to 6.10 .

Coincidentally , according to the first business to
been executed in the maximum amount of this bar , the price of which was equal to the maximum aperture .

In the remainder of the period,
price was gradually giving way to the last trade executed to 3.20 . As the value of the last trade was made in the pricelower the bar , the minimal and were closing with the same values ​​.Based on what was seen , I propose a test of assimilation : What values ​​( approximate ) opening , maximum ,minimum and closing LAST 14 bars ? On the next page you will find a table ready to do the exercise .The combination of these comings and goings of bars periodicity of 15 minutes covering a full day ofnegotiations (one trading day ) , so a single bar daily periodicity . In the above diagram it is represented bybar in bold , the last and the greatest of all .

It incorporates the price of the first business day ( opening ) , the largest and highest
the lowest minimum recorded within the day and the last business day ( closing ) .As you can see , despite not detail all the market swings that day , what we saw through the bars15 minutes reveals a good part of the whole .

On this day , the buyers won the battle because the price went up.
Throughout this course and magazines , often you will read texts with references to charts intraday , daily , weekly  and monthly .

Are designated as such in accordance with the frequency ( frequency) of the bar .On a weekly chart , a single bar has the same matching pattern we saw with the example of 15 barsminutes forming a single bar daily .

Only, instead of gather the opening , the maximum , the minimum and closing18 bars 15 minutes, combine the same values ​​of the bars that formed daily on weekdays ( 5 barsweek without a holiday . If we have a holiday week , the weekly bar takes the combined value of the fourremaining .

If the week has only 1 day , daily and weekly bars will be equal) .
On a monthly chart , a singlebar represents the combination of the aperture value , maximum, minimum and closing bars that formed daywithin that month. And so on. Although still not used to observe and interpret a graph gostarting to train . Note the graph of the next page as a bar 15 minutes periodicity becomes1 hour to a bar , which in turn is converted into a daily bar which in turn becomes a weekly bar .
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Friday, October 25, 2013

The Basics 4

What is a price slash ? A bar prices , symbolized by a vertical bar , the record is
pictographic activity the price of a financial asset during a period, where each price is a consensus
momentary value of all market participants , expressed in movement . Let us return to the first day
business with the actions of Aplicar.com
Each price bar provides a few pieces of information about the
balance of power between buyers and sellers .

To understand that
a graph need to know to interpret it . Let's assume one price bar
that reflects the period of one trading day.

In the vertical bar, through a
dash ( tick ) horizontal on the left is represented the price level of
first business day , the opening ( 1000 ) .

The last business day of the
Lock ( 1001 ) , is represented by a horizontal tick on your right . the
edges respectively represent the maximum ( 1.003 ) and the minimum ( 999 )
met this day.

The brands that represent the opening and closing is easy to understand how they arise , but as
forming the extremes? The upper end ( maximum ) formed when the willingness of buyers
pay increasingly higher prices was overwhelmed by the sales force against the sellers at that level .

Ie , the price rises to a certain level , in principle unknown , which once reached mobilizes
a mass of sellers whose desire to prevent the sale price go ahead . The lower end is formed
conversely .

Now that you know what is a bar , learn about the most common frequencies that are constructed ,
because they will be to determine the extent to which we are looking at a graph, in order to
determine the levels of support and resistance more significant .

So you understand even better the
meaning of a bar of how to process the fight between buyers and sellers over a day
trading, we invent a bar with the following information : aperture = 4.20, maximum = 13.00 , minimum =
= 1.50 and closing 11.50. Now , let's dissect it , creating a hypothetical unfolding . Make Account
the trading floor is divided into 18 periods of 15 minutes with 1 minute intervals between them and that each bar
15 minutes is constructed identically to the bar daily with the aperture value, the maximum value of the
value and the minimum value of closing.

At the end of the day , using two perpendicular axes ( the horizontal
representing a time scale and vertical value ) , you can see through the movement of
bars 15 minutes, as was the internal movement of trading that day .
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Thursday, October 24, 2013

The Basics 3

While both try to solve the same problem of price direction , they differ in their evaluation form .  

The school
fundamentalist studies the causes of the price movement , while the technical school studies the effects .

The technical analystargues that the effects are all he wants or needs to know and why prices moveare unnecessary .

The fundamental analyst , on the other hand, always have to know why.


The fundamentalist school
working with data from the economic and financial study of the company within the micro and macro economic scenario ,possibly linked to the international scene , while the school works with technical data provided byChanges in prices and volumes , using charts , theories and mathematical- statistical indicators related to them .
Being the local stock exchanges where pricesform freely by confrontation betweenthe forces of supply and demand , the technicianassumes that all he is interested in analyzingprice movement , as heembeds the performance and the expectation of allagents participating in the market.
Put another way, the technician for theprice is the resultant of all the forcesoperate in the market .

To interpret it detects the predominant force .Thus, for example, an investor whoaccess to some kind of informationprivileged about a particular companyand decide to take advantage of this information ,hardly not have detected its performanceby technical analyst , although this does notknow why or who is acting .

butto the coach , what matters is not thereason but its reflection on the price .Over the past several years taught courses in technical analysis building on the conventional modeladopted for all courses technical analysis , starting from its origin , followed by the presentation ofsome of the various theories , leaving the end of the practical part , the scarcity of time was neverfully dissected . In fact , all that bothered me a lot because he thought much unnecessarybut it was what the students hoped to find a technical analysis course .In this , I decided to tear down the fantasy and the reality of what I think necessary for a person to havesatisfactory performance in any market where prices are formed freely by supply anddemand. For this purpose it will be necessary to be possible to accept as " dogma " such thatmarket where prices are formed freely , is nothing more than a game where it traded assetsare chips. The only requirement is that these previous chips are widely traded ( who have liquidity ) .

Like a game of chess or dama , our game will also be played on a board . Only ourthe tray is limited by a vertical and a horizontal price of time, where the horizontal linesImaginary obstacles are to be overcome and the diagonals our way of locomotion . our partsare always the same : price bars . They can move up , down or sideways ,always toward the right .
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Wednesday, October 23, 2013

The Basics 2

Once created the company , say they have been met with the competent organs all requirements forthat she can , from now on , have their shares traded on the exchange.

The way trading will transferscriptural . It could also be registered shares. What distinguishes one from the other is that the Book-Entry Shares are notrepresented by warrants or certificates , functioning as a checking account in which amounts are debitedor credit of shareholders , there is no physical movement of documents , while the nominal shares areor certificates showing the name of the shareholder , whose transfer is made with the delivery of care andregistration of the term, in its own book of the issuing company , identifying the new shareholder.The shares have a return variable.

Part of it , consisting of dividends or profit sharing andbenefits provided by the company comes from the possession of the action , the other part comes from the eventual capital gain on the saleaction .Dividends - The profit sharing of a society is made in the form of cash dividends ,a percentage to be set at the Annual General Shareholders' Meeting , in accordance with the results obtained bycompany in a given period .Bonus Shares - arises from the increase of capital of a company , through the incorporation of reserves and profits ,when new shares are distributed free of charge to its shareholders , in proportion to those already possessed .Subscription Rights - is the right to purchase new batch of shares by the shareholders - with preferential subscription -in proportion to the amount possessed , in contrast to the strategy of increasing the company's capital .Sale of Subscription Rights - How not required the exercise of preferential subscription of new shares,shareholder may sell to third parties , in exchange, the rights it holds.Now that you have a sense of what represents an action and some of its main features , we can followbelow.Imagine that today will be the premiere of the action Aplicar.Com on the floor . For the purpose of monitoring will record theevolution of business through a graph where the vertical axis represents a range of trading prices andhorizontal axis the temporal sequence of business, as shown below:At the end of the first day of trading , the share ofAplicar.Com 11 registered businesses in the following
sequence of price:
First business : 1,000.00
According to business: 1,001.00
T
hird business: 1,000.00

Business Room : 999.00

Fifth business: 1,000.00

Sixth business: 1,000.00

Seventh business: 1,001.00

Eighth business: 1,002.00

Ninth business: 1,003.00
Tenth business: 1,002.00
Last business: 1,001.00
From this moment , we are faced with the problem that every investor has , ie to evaluate somehowif the price of these stocks now listed on the stock exchange , is expensive or cheap , it will remain where it is , it goes up or goesfall.There are several ways to do this analysis , two more have more followers : technical analysis and analysisfundamentalist
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The Basics 1

This course was designed with the goal of preparing you to decide the best time to buy, sell or stand aside an action, using only a few resources provided by graphical analysis and a few complementary tools. 
But, before you start the course, you will need to learn what it is or what an action represents, and some peculiarities about them, because after all they are the main object of this course.

Actions: Are equity securities issued by corporations, which represent the smallest fraction of the shares issuer. They might be dematerialized or represented by certificates.

The equity investor is a co -owner of a corporation, which is a shareholder participating in their results. The shares are convertible into money any time by trading on exchanges or OTC.
Example: Suppose you and your friends wish to make an investment to create a website targeted to financially denominate Aplicar.com and by that you wish to start a business.
The value of the investment to be made will be the capital of the company.
But as each of you (you and your friends) want to invest different amounts, you need to decide to divide the capital for a given number units alike. Thus, each investor will have a certain number of units, representing proportion of their investment.


Assuming that the initial investment is R $ 100,000.00 divided into 100 equal parts, we can say, then, that each one of the 100 shares of this company is worth $ 1,000.00, and the capital of the company is represented by 100* shares in the amount of $ 1,000.00 each. Furthermore, assuming that the future actions of this company are traded on the stock market in search of new partners and resources cheaper than resort to the banking system in general, the founding partners decided to split the capital of the company into shares of common and preferred type of same value.
Thus, each common share represents one preferred share and the company's share capital is represented by 50 shares, and 50 shares are preferred.
Ordinary shares give their holders to a share in profits of the company and give the shareholder entitled to vote at general meetings, thus conferring the right to send to the company.
The preferred shares grant the shareholder the priority in receiving dividends (usually as a percentage over higher than those paid for common shares) and the repayment of capital in the event of dissolution of the company.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2013

introduction ( part 2 )

while the Directional Movement yet . Be expected to tune into both may be
late for one of them . Anyway , I lived for years with these and other issues , on the
which see no need to dwell .

After many years my scoring charts manually with pencil and paper appropriate, had
acquired a great intimacy with the graphical analysis .

 Knew define the levels of support and
resistance , as well as draw trend lines with significant perfection. Nevertheless, no
was there that took my decisions , or better , the graphic was decisive only when
could identify a pattern reversal or continuation , without giving due importance to
Dow Theory .

 Preferred to assess the market through the theories and tools using the graph only
to determine the entry point.

The first time I heard of Symmetry was in 1994 , when accidentally I was fortunate to
make contact with the book "The Adam Theory of Markets or What Matters is Profit" written by Welles
Wilder Jr. At that time , we had already noticed my graphics tendency to repetition, in the sense
Conversely, every time a movement was reversed .

 Rather, noted that most graphics
had a propensity to form tops and bottoms in a "V " or " inverted V " . However,
did not know what to do with it or how to get something out in operational terms .

When reading the book I discovered that what I saw as just a coincidence , had served as the basis for a new graphical approach , transformed into a new theory called " Adam Theory" four or method
Reflection of Double .

And even more, now knew what to look for on the charts !
Once you try this technique for a while , I developed a variant which I called
" Symmetry Bellows " , where it originated this course . Extremely simple in its application , is
even easier in their criteria for buying and selling . Moreover, almost no need
complementary indicators , sector indexes only to give a general idea of the different
market scenarios .

Although Dow did not possess sectoral indices for all sectors ,
the use of the line of advance and decline allowed me to develop indices for all sectors of the so simple and totally reliable , as we shall see .
This course , although very simple in theory should not be to lay. Would have already had
some prior knowledge , especially graphical analysis . As has decided to teach it
virtually so that in future be prepared to do my advanced course or any other
you want to attend .
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introduction 1

introduction 1
In the early years of my activity I thought the stock market prices climbs down were directly related to its foundations. The fact that a company shows good results and signals a favorable future path should be reflected in higher prices and vice versa. In the real world , however , many times the thing did not work well .In search of an answer , my outlook on the stock market began to change in 1984 when I had the opportunity to read a book  .At the end of reading the first page , I had already begun to see the market for another prism. In fact, from the very first sentence I realized there was something new when I read that “The stock market is a game. All references on the situation of business, corporate earnings, liquidity, interest rates, etc. . . . are strategies to create market traps to players who are aware of these factors , often strange , illusory ,about what the market is about to do”. It was a short circuit in my beliefs! So I decided to study the technical analysis. 


In the absence of literature in Portuguese, I started buying books in American English and I gradually became self - educated .I Started by Murphy3 book, a work which was very comprehensive and very easy to read. Being a kind of encyclopedia of technical analysis, I came across a number of theories and tools that unless I know the techniques of Point and Figure Index and Relative Strength, I would never heard of. Then, I gradually was importing books on specific main themes that met the work of Murphy.

My learning process lasted about ten years, during which everything assimilated was put into practice. I tried a method and it did not work. I tried a new one and the results were repeated.

So it was during those years that I had a string of failed attempts. I do not blame the methods or the techniques for these successive disasters.


Surely, it was me to blame. Today, when I look back, I realize that my basic mistake was lying. I do not remember, indeed, in some of the books from which I leaned, where I read something about following a market placed emphatically. As far as I remember, all the theories and techniques learned were directed to anticipate what the market would do, rather, to predict the price movement before it occurred. Everything was directed to form an opinion on the market. Another aspect that generated a lot of confusion was the knowledge and use of many tools in search of harmony. I never found this harmony. But it is easy to understand why this lack of harmony takes place. Basically there are two types of indicators: Tracking trend (MACD,
significant Moving Average Convergence Divergence, etc.) And oscillators (the RSI, the Relative Strength Index).


As each one is built with different logics and their authors recommend that they should be used with certain defaults, track and oscillate in time different. Thus, while an oscillator may be overbought, at the same time another may be oversold.


So which one is the right thing?

In which you can trust?  What periodicity is ideal?
The same goes for the crawlers.


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